Why not drop the other shoe and have an all-electric Volt?

[Ken Fry-2]

I think that the problem with an all-electric Volt is simply an
unacceptable cost/benefit ratio: you would pay far more and get far less
utility.  In the vehicle I am developing, (see www.gaiatransport.com
<http://www.gaiatransport.com/> ) I made the same decision that Chevy
made, that being: the only realistic route to full-electric vehicles as
a mass market item, is via PHEVs... because only with the volume
possible with PHEVs can high quality battery prices start to come down
to the $200/kWh that can make a mass market BEV feasible.  Remember that
the mass market is happy with Ford F150's and full size Honda Accords
(double the weight of my first one).  The mass market is not Prius
buyers (even though owning one means no sacrifices whatsoever) and is
certainly not electric vehicle buyers (who accept very large sacrifices
in purchase cost and convenience).  Consider something simple, like a
nice one day drive up the California coast.  Sorry, not in a Tesla, let
alone something designed for 100 mile range.          
 
Batteries are too expensive for a mass market BEV with long range, mid
size, and good performance.  Make a BEV of a Volt, with true,
repeatable, realistic 100 mile range (let alone anything greater) and
you have $20,000 in batteries alone (40kWh), even if you buy the cheap
ones we can get for $500/kWh from China.  (Use 70% of a Tesla pack, and
you have $40,000 in batteries/bms alone.)  So you'd end up with a very
expensive, limited utility economy car, the cost of which you can never
justify on the basis on gas savings, and which couldn't begin to compete
with an ordinary Prius in the marketplace.  For the country at large,
electricity is generated at 38% well-to-plug efficiency and mainly from
coal, so the Prius (at 38% engine efficiency and 82% well-to-pump
gasoline efficiency) is comparably clean, but a fraction the price of a
Volt in BEV form.  A Volt BEV could not compete even with a Prius, let
alone with Accord or a Camry.  (Even Prius sales are off 61% this May vs
last May, with people unwilling to pay what they see as a premium over
an economy car.)  The Prius no longer shows up on the best selling 20
light vehicles list, which is still headed by the Ford F-series.  The
mass market wants perceived value, and big and flashy trumps
environmental concerns.  
 
Contrast this with the Volt, as designed.  Although at $40,000 with its
small battery pack it is probably too expensive, perhaps people can be
convinced that it has enough virtues to sell well.  (At $22,000 it could
sell like hotcakes.)  90% of all commuters would never use any gasoline,
getting all the benefits of a full electric car, such as the potential
for charging on clean power, in the places where that is available,
without the worries about range.  (Tell me these worries are unfounded
when you are five miles from the hospital with a dead battery pack and
your wife in labor.)  For the rest of the country, you charge on the
grid mix, which is still somewhat better environmentally than using
gasoline, but almost universally cheaper.  Many people will find that
prospect very appealing... some, even if the cost is $35,000 or $40,000
- at which price, you would never save enough on fuel to warrant the
cost, but you will be doing your part to help usher in future electric
vehicles.  
 
The idea of the Volt (as designed) is just right, I think, although the
price is too high.  GM could price it lower if they produce their own
batteries (which they have planned to do), and take the long view.  They
have no history of taking the long view, though.  
 
For my own vehicle, PHEV is the only way I can make an economy car that
is priced like an economy car.  Making the car efficient enough to be
able to use a very small battery pack means that it holds just two
people rather than the whole family, and it can't tow a boat.  But I
think there is a small market for a vehicle that gets one person back
and forth to work on electricity with minimal environmental impact, that
does not consume the huge quantities of resources in production that any
large vehicle (electric or otherwise) does, that avoids range anxiety,
that can be driven across the country, that doesn't suffer the safety
weaknesses of most very small cars, and carries the price of a small car
rather than the price of a Mercedes.  
 
If the Volt were $22,000 I'd have a harder time selling my cars, and
Toyota would have a hard time selling Priuses.  
 
Cheers, Ken
 
 
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[Jack Murray]

Hi Ken, looks like a cool car/scooter!
Agree with your analysis mostly.  As I've said many times, the way to make EV's affordable and mass-market is to use small batteries, as they are the most expensive part of EV.  If we can have ubiquitous fast-charge stations, it would work today for most cities.  For long-distance, you must remember that 10-15hp works on flat ground, try going over the grapevine with a 50cc engine.
I'd like to see some evidence of the crash worthiness at 70mph of that little car.
Cheers, Jack

--- On Wed, 7/1/09, Ken Fry <[hidden email]> wrote:

> From: Ken Fry <[hidden email]>
> Subject: [EVDL] Why not drop the other shoe and have an all-electric Volt?
> To: [hidden email]
> Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 4:29 PM
> I think that the problem with an
> all-electric Volt is simply an
> unacceptable cost/benefit ratio: you would pay far more and
> get far less
> utility.  In the vehicle I am developing, (see
> www.gaiatransport.com
> <http://www.gaiatransport.com/> ) I made the same
> decision that Chevy
> made, that being: the only realistic route to full-electric
> vehicles as
> a mass market item, is via PHEVs... because only with the
> volume
> possible with PHEVs can high quality battery prices start
> to come down
> to the $200/kWh that can make a mass market BEV
> feasible.  Remember that
> the mass market is happy with Ford F150's and full size
> Honda Accords
> (double the weight of my first one).  The mass market
> is not Prius
> buyers (even though owning one means no sacrifices
> whatsoever) and is
> certainly not electric vehicle buyers (who accept very
> large sacrifices
> in purchase cost and convenience).  Consider something
> simple, like a
> nice one day drive up the California coast.  Sorry,
> not in a Tesla, let
> alone something designed for 100 mile range.   
>      
>  
> Batteries are too expensive for a mass market BEV with long
> range, mid
> size, and good performance.  Make a BEV of a Volt,
> with true,
> repeatable, realistic 100 mile range (let alone anything
> greater) and
> you have $20,000 in batteries alone (40kWh), even if you
> buy the cheap
> ones we can get for $500/kWh from China.  (Use 70% of
> a Tesla pack, and
> you have $40,000 in batteries/bms alone.)  So you'd
> end up with a very
> expensive, limited utility economy car, the cost of which
> you can never
> justify on the basis on gas savings, and which couldn't
> begin to compete
> with an ordinary Prius in the marketplace.  For the
> country at large,
> electricity is generated at 38% well-to-plug efficiency and
> mainly from
> coal, so the Prius (at 38% engine efficiency and 82%
> well-to-pump
> gasoline efficiency) is comparably clean, but a fraction
> the price of a
> Volt in BEV form.  A Volt BEV could not compete even
> with a Prius, let
> alone with Accord or a Camry.  (Even Prius sales are
> off 61% this May vs
> last May, with people unwilling to pay what they see as a
> premium over
> an economy car.)  The Prius no longer shows up on the
> best selling 20
> light vehicles list, which is still headed by the Ford
> F-series.  The
> mass market wants perceived value, and big and flashy
> trumps
> environmental concerns. 
>  
> Contrast this with the Volt, as designed.  Although at
> $40,000 with its
> small battery pack it is probably too expensive, perhaps
> people can be
> convinced that it has enough virtues to sell well. 
> (At $22,000 it could
> sell like hotcakes.)  90% of all commuters would never
> use any gasoline,
> getting all the benefits of a full electric car, such as
> the potential
> for charging on clean power, in the places where that is
> available,
> without the worries about range.  (Tell me these
> worries are unfounded
> when you are five miles from the hospital with a dead
> battery pack and
> your wife in labor.)  For the rest of the country, you
> charge on the
> grid mix, which is still somewhat better environmentally
> than using
> gasoline, but almost universally cheaper.  Many people
> will find that
> prospect very appealing... some, even if the cost is
> $35,000 or $40,000
> - at which price, you would never save enough on fuel to
> warrant the
> cost, but you will be doing your part to help usher in
> future electric
> vehicles.   
>  
> The idea of the Volt (as designed) is just right, I think,
> although the
> price is too high.  GM could price it lower if they
> produce their own
> batteries (which they have planned to do), and take the
> long view.  They
> have no history of taking the long view,
> though.   
>  
> For my own vehicle, PHEV is the only way I can make an
> economy car that
> is priced like an economy car.  Making the car
> efficient enough to be
> able to use a very small battery pack means that it holds
> just two
> people rather than the whole family, and it can't tow a
> boat.  But I
> think there is a small market for a vehicle that gets one
> person back
> and forth to work on electricity with minimal environmental
> impact, that
> does not consume the huge quantities of resources in
> production that any
> large vehicle (electric or otherwise) does, that avoids
> range anxiety,
> that can be driven across the country, that doesn't suffer
> the safety
> weaknesses of most very small cars, and carries the price
> of a small car
> rather than the price of a Mercedes. 
>  
> If the Volt were $22,000 I'd have a harder time selling my
> cars, and
> Toyota would have a hard time selling Priuses. 
>  
> Cheers, Ken
>  
>  
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[Ecofreak]

Ken Fry-2 wrote:

I think that the problem with an all-electric Volt is simply an
unacceptable cost/benefit ratio: you would pay far more and get far less
utility.  In the vehicle I am developing, (see www.gaiatransport.com
<http://www.gaiatransport.com/> ) I made the same decision that Chevy
made, that being: the only realistic route to full-electric vehicles as
a mass market item, is via PHEVs... because only with the volume
possible with PHEVs can high quality battery prices start to come down
to the $200/kWh that can make a mass market BEV feasible.  Remember that
the mass market is happy with Ford F150's and full size Honda Accords
(double the weight of my first one).  The mass market is not Prius
buyers (even though owning one means no sacrifices whatsoever) and is
certainly not electric vehicle buyers (who accept very large sacrifices
in purchase cost and convenience).  Consider something simple, like a
nice one day drive up the California coast.  Sorry, not in a Tesla, let
alone something designed for 100 mile range.          
 
Batteries are too expensive for a mass market BEV with long range, mid
size, and good performance.  Make a BEV of a Volt, with true,
repeatable, realistic 100 mile range (let alone anything greater) and
you have $20,000 in batteries alone (40kWh), even if you buy the cheap
ones we can get for $500/kWh from China.  (Use 70% of a Tesla pack, and
you have $40,000 in batteries/bms alone.)  So you'd end up with a very
expensive, limited utility economy car, the cost of which you can never
justify on the basis on gas savings, and which couldn't begin to compete
with an ordinary Prius in the marketplace.  For the country at large,
electricity is generated at 38% well-to-plug efficiency and mainly from
coal, so the Prius (at 38% engine efficiency and 82% well-to-pump
gasoline efficiency) is comparably clean, but a fraction the price of a
Volt in BEV form.  A Volt BEV could not compete even with a Prius, let
alone with Accord or a Camry.  (Even Prius sales are off 61% this May vs
last May, with people unwilling to pay what they see as a premium over
an economy car.)  The Prius no longer shows up on the best selling 20
light vehicles list, which is still headed by the Ford F-series.  The
mass market wants perceived value, and big and flashy trumps
environmental concerns.  
 
Contrast this with the Volt, as designed.  Although at $40,000 with its
small battery pack it is probably too expensive, perhaps people can be
convinced that it has enough virtues to sell well.  (At $22,000 it could
sell like hotcakes.)  90% of all commuters would never use any gasoline,
getting all the benefits of a full electric car, such as the potential
for charging on clean power, in the places where that is available,
without the worries about range.  (Tell me these worries are unfounded
when you are five miles from the hospital with a dead battery pack and
your wife in labor.)  For the rest of the country, you charge on the
grid mix, which is still somewhat better environmentally than using
gasoline, but almost universally cheaper.  Many people will find that
prospect very appealing... some, even if the cost is $35,000 or $40,000
- at which price, you would never save enough on fuel to warrant the
cost, but you will be doing your part to help usher in future electric
vehicles.  
 
The idea of the Volt (as designed) is just right, I think, although the
price is too high.  GM could price it lower if they produce their own
batteries (which they have planned to do), and take the long view.  They
have no history of taking the long view, though.  
 
For my own vehicle, PHEV is the only way I can make an economy car that
is priced like an economy car.  Making the car efficient enough to be
able to use a very small battery pack means that it holds just two
people rather than the whole family, and it can't tow a boat.  But I
think there is a small market for a vehicle that gets one person back
and forth to work on electricity with minimal environmental impact, that
does not consume the huge quantities of resources in production that any
large vehicle (electric or otherwise) does, that avoids range anxiety,
that can be driven across the country, that doesn't suffer the safety
weaknesses of most very small cars, and carries the price of a small car
rather than the price of a Mercedes.  
 
If the Volt were $22,000 I'd have a harder time selling my cars, and
Toyota would have a hard time selling Priuses.  
 
Cheers, Ken
 
 
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I agree with you Except I think that the real problem isn't Battery costs or Demand.
In large volume production Battery costs would drop considerably.  
The Demand is there.  The Technology is there.  
The problem is that the Oil Revenue isn't there.  
I think there is a reason that there are no electric vehicles available in the US,  
and it isn't that nobody wants to drive one.
The highest recorded profits are repeatedly from Exxon Mobil.  somewhere in the range of 13-14 billion per quarter roughly 3 months
just immagine the "Revenue losses" that would be the result of peoples average gasoline consumption going from 19.8 mpg (the average us passenger and light truck combined mpg) to 35 mpg.  roughly a 28.57% loss.  Now what if that number in the matter of just a couple of years jumped from 25mpg to say 75 mpg as the majority of people see the thousands they would save by driving a rapid charging electric or a good plug in electric hybrid.  
I know what I'd do as an owner or lobbyist for Exxon Mobil?
Id be protecting my Gold Mine by going golfing with auto Ceo's and throwing them a financial bone... and then I'd go to Washington and throw some money around...and then to Californian legislators and state officials...
I think we have a corporate Big Oil, Big Money Problem.
If you see any holes in my theory please let me know.

I'm sure that I'm preaching to the choir here but...
When gas Prices hit $4.00 and higher I couldn't find a new car that got over 40mpg.  unless it was a 35,000 dollar prius.  and even now the closest thing to my car is a smart car,  it gets roughly the same mpg is roughly half the size.  I was Very grateful for My 50mpg 1999 Chevy Metro, it saved me roughly $300 per month over my wifes car that gets roughly 30mpg.  
in the past I drove a 1980 2.0 liter rear wheel drive, made of bricks kind of heavy Datsun 200sx that got 40mpg on the highway!  I could go on and on, but the truth is Cars are getting worse and worse mileage.  This bazaar phenomenon is almost entirely a US thing.  check out some European Car Mileages and do the math to convert to us gallons and miles etc.  Europe gets it's oil largely from Russia,  and they will also see the effects of global climate change a lot sooner than the U.S.


I can't wait for the volt to come out...But i'm not going to hold my breath on it becoming available to the public.  If it does I'd bet my hard earned money that it will be lease only, and limited production. or the production unit will be made cheapened with a golf cart motor, lead acid boat anchor batteries with a 5 mile range, and they'll want about 5 times what it's worth,  so that it'll flop and they can say the demand isn't there.
I'm anxious to see what happens, and really truly hoping like mad that I'm wrong.